Seasonality
Peru alpaca knitwear ships 71% of its year in five months
Alpaca knitwear concentrates 71% of its year in five months and cotton does not. The same company quotes two honest prices six months apart.
Key takeaways
- Alpaca runs 71% of its year between July and November, with September alone at 17.1% and February at 2.4%.
- Cotton out of the same country is close to flat, so the headline monthly figure hides the alpaca curve underneath it.
- The month to be inside a company plan is May: development done in the peak window competes with production for the same machines.
The numbers behind this
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Alpaca, share of the year in July to November | 71% |
| Alpaca, busiest single month | September, 17.1% |
| Alpaca, quietest single month | February, 2.4% |
| Alpaca, busiest against quietest | about seven to one |
| Cotton, share of the year in June to October | 51% |
| Month to already be inside a plan | May |
The same Peruvian company quotes two different prices for the same sweater six months apart, and both quotes are honest. The reason is written into the shipping calendar, and it is legible long before a supplier will mention it.
One product code, three calendars
I used to read Peruvian knitwear as a single seasonal business. Everything here is knitwear, knitwear is winter, so the calendar should look like winter. Then I split it by fibre and the single curve came apart into two.
Alpaca knitwear concentrates 71% of its year in five months, July to November. September alone carries 17.1% of the annual volume.
The valley is February. The busiest month moves roughly seven garments for every one the quietest month moves.
Cotton knitwear, out of the same country and under the same product name, does not behave that way. Its strongest five month stretch is June to October, and it carries 51% of the year. Five twelfths of a year holding a little over half of it is close to flat. Synthetic knitwear sits in between, on the same stretch.
So the product code holds three calendars and reports one. Anyone reading the monthly export figure for Peruvian knitwear is reading a blend, and the blend is set by cotton, because cotton carries the volume. The alpaca curve underneath it is far sharper than the headline ever shows.
Two fibres, two calendars, one product code
Share of the year carried by each fibre strongest five month stretch
Why the split exists
The reason for it stops being mysterious once you see it. Alpaca is a cold weather fibre sold into a northern autumn, so it ships when it ships.
Cotton knitwear out of Peru is largely programme work for brands, produced against orders that arrive across the year. It fills the calendar rather than a season.
What the clock does to a quote
What makes this useful is what happens to a company inside each clock.
A company whose volume lives in a five month window spends the other seven with a floor that is not full.
In August that same company has yarn committed, machines booked and a delivery date it cannot move. Its quote carries the price of scarcity. In February and March it is quoting against an empty bench, and the yarn it will use has not been bought yet.
That is the Displaced Window. The moment of maximum leverage for the buyer sits about six months away from the moment of maximum demand.
September moves seven garments for every one February moves
Alpaca knitwear, busiest and quietest month
Development competes with production for the same floor
There is a second consequence that matters more for a first order. Development takes time, and development done in the peak window competes with production for the same machines. A sample requested in March gets attention. The same sample requested in September sits behind a container.
The yarn adds a layer of its own. Alpaca is shorn once a year and classed after that. So a company quoting in the valley is quoting against fibre that has already been bought and sorted. A company quoting inside the window is often committing against a lot it still needs to secure.
That is why the same conversation produces two different answers six months apart, and why neither answer is dishonest.
A limit, and the month that matters
This is a pattern in total volume rather than a promise about any single company. A company with a stable European client base will look flatter than the curve. One living off a single autumn programme will look sharper than it. The curve tells you where to start asking, not what any particular company will answer.
One more note on the shape. The rise is steep rather than gradual. Volume climbs from June, peaks in September and falls away through December. Which means the month to be already inside a company's plan is May.
The practical order, then, runs against the instinct. Talk in the valley. Sample in the valley. Commit before the window opens. August is the month for confirming shipments, and a poor month for starting relationships.
Common questions
When does Peruvian alpaca knitwear actually ship?
Between July and November, which carries 71% of the year. September alone is 17.1% and February is 2.4%.
Does cotton knitwear follow the same season?
No. Its strongest five months carry 51% of the year, which is close to flat, because it is largely programme work produced against orders that arrive all year.
When is the best moment to ask for a quote?
In the valley, roughly February and March, when a company is quoting against an empty bench and fibre it has already bought and sorted.
When should a buyer request samples?
In the valley as well. Development competes with production for the same machines, so a sample asked for in March gets attention and the same sample in September sits behind a container.
Does this predict what one company will quote?
No. It is a pattern in total volume. A company with a stable European client base looks flatter and one living off a single autumn programme looks sharper.
Tell us the spec. We come back with whether a real supplier base exists for it.
We work only in camelid fibre, on the ground in Peru. You get the companies that already ship what you are asking for, at the size and the grade you are asking for.
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